Population Projections by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2015-2060

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*Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander
Data Excerpted from: Population › U.S. Census Bureau Projections Show a Slower Growing, Older, More Diverse Nation a Half Century from Now; United States Census, Release December 12, 2012

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*Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander
Data Excerpted from: Population › U.S. Census Bureau Projections Show a Slower Growing, Older, More Diverse Nation a Half Century from Now; United States Census, Release December 12, 2012

COMMENTS:

A More Diverse Nation

The non-Hispanic white population is projected to peak in 2024, at 199.6 million, up from 197.8 million in 2012. Unlike other race or ethnic groups, however, its population is projected to slowly decrease, falling by nearly 20.6 million from 2024 to 2060.

Meanwhile, the Hispanic population would more than double, from 53.3 million in 2012 to 128.8 million in 2060. Consequently, by the end of the period, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic, up from about one in six today.

The black population is expected to increase from 41.2 million to 61.8 million over the same period. Its share of the total population would rise slightly, from 13.1 % in 2012 to 14.7 % in 2060.

The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation’s total population climbing from 5.1 % to 8.2 % in the same period.

Among the remaining race groups, American Indians and Alaska Natives would increase by more than half from now to 2060, from 3.9 million to 6.3 million, with their share of the total population edging up from 1.2 % to 1.5 %. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to nearly double, from 706,000 to 1.4 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 7.5 million to 26.7 million over the same period.

The U.S. is projected to become a majority-minority nation for the first time in 2043. While the non-Hispanic white population will remain the largest single group, no group will make up a majority.

All in all, minorities, now 37 % of the U.S. population, are projected to comprise 57 % of the population in 2060. (Minorities consist of all but the single-race, non-Hispanic white population.) The total minority population would more than double, from 116.2 million to 241.3 million over the period.

Projections show the older population would continue to be predominately non-Hispanic white, while younger ages are increasingly minority. Of those age 65 and older in 2060, 56.0 % are expected to be non-Hispanic white, 21.2 % Hispanic and 12.5 % non-Hispanic black. In contrast, while 52.7 % of those younger than 18 were non-Hispanic white in 2012, that number would drop to 32.9 % by 2060. Hispanics are projected to make up 38.0 % of this group in 2060, up from 23.9 % in 2012.

Other highlights:

  • The nation’s total population would cross the 400 million mark in 2051, reaching 420.3 million in 2060.
  • The proportion of the population younger than 18 is expected to change little over the 2012-2060 period, decreasing from 23.5 % to 21.2 %.
  • In 2056, for the first time, the older population, age 65 and over, is projected to outnumber the young, age under 18.
  • The working-age population (18 to 64) is expected to increase by 42 million between 2012 and 2060, from 197 million to 239 million, while its share of the total population declines from 62.7 % to 56.9 %.
  • The ratio of males to females is expected to remain stable at around 104.7 males per 100 females for the population under the age of 18. For the population age 18 to 64, the ratio of males per 100 females is projected to be 98.9 in 2012 and increase to 104.1 in 2060. The ratio for the population age 65 and over is also projected to increase, from 77.3 males per 100 females in 2012 to 84.4 in 2060.

Population › U.S. Census Bureau Projections Show a Slower Growing, Older, More Diverse Nation a Half Century from Now; United States Census, Release December 12, 2012

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